Friday, May 1, 2026

John Cookson, AC Intel Anchor

Since the Iran war began, I’ve used this Friday newsletter to ask the biggest question each week about the conflict. With negotiations ongoing, there has been a lot of focus on the substantive differences Washington and Tehran would need to bridge to reach an agreement. But this week’s question is more about the decisionmakers: Who’s in charge in Iran?

The answer, says Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch at Israeli Defense Intelligence, is the Islamic Republic 3.0. In a new podcast, Danny, who is also a nonresident fellow with our Middle East Programs, spoke with Nate Swanson, the director of our Iran Strategy Project. The war, Danny says, has “changed the course of the Iranian revolution for the worse,” creating a third iteration of the current regime.

The Islamic Republic 1.0 was the revolutionary regime of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, which gave way to the security-focused and centralized regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Now in its third incarnation, the Islamic Republic has become “more or less a military junta.” Critically, it is much more decentralized than under Khamenei and increasingly controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“The war gave a lifeline to the IRGC, to the extreme elements in the regime,” Danny says. While the IRGC has expanded its authority, the Islamic Republic 3.0 has so far retained the supreme leader as titular head. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei replaced his deceased father, who was killed during the first US and Israeli airstrikes of the war. “But I don't think that he is calling the shots,” Danny says of Mojtaba. “I think that he’s controlled by the IRGC.”

“Mojtaba Khamenei would never have been elected if his father had died from natural causes,” Danny contends. It was because Ali Khamenei was killed, and because US President Donald Trump said that he didn’t like Mojtaba, Danny adds, that the Iranian establishment felt “forced” to elevate Khamenei fils to supreme leader.

How will this new configuration for the old regime play out? Your AC Intel starts there.

“I don’t think that Mojtaba will become Ali.”

While he was supreme leader, Ali Khamenei was the final decider for most major issues, Danny tells Nate. The decentralized structure of the current regime has only complicated decision-making. “It was hard to reach an agreement with the previous regime,” Danny says. “Now it’s even become harder because of the characteristics of the regime itself.”

“It didn’t have to be this way.”

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Danny explains that before the war, the Iranian regime was under growing pressure from protesters. However, “Khamenei’s death disrupted Iran’s evolution and provided the regime with an opportunity to consolidate. Paradoxically, the external pressure meant to topple the Iranian regime has helped preserve it.” 

“I won’t see you next time.”

Jerome Powell said his goodbyes following his final Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chair this week, and his tenure included “major achievements and shortcomings,” argues former Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund Hung Tran. “Powell’s track record and experiences in dealing with inflation, promoting maximum employment, supporting financial stability, and defending the Fed’s independence can serve as lessons for his successors.” 

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Mali’s security is deteriorating in the wake of a large-scale, coordinated series of attacks across multiple cities on April 25, write Hussein Ba, a Senegalese columnist, and Rama Yade, the head of our Africa Center. “The specter of a total collapse of a country spanning over a million square kilometers is looming,” they write. “This rapid deterioration of the country’s security situation stems from accumulated structural failures.”   

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