Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Katherine Golden, AC Intel Anchor

Today marks two years since Hamas launched its terrorist attack on Israel, prompting Israel’s war in Gaza. As talks on a possible end to the war continue in Egypt, we turned to Shalom Lipner, who served as an adviser to Israeli prime ministers from 1990 to 2016, to assess how Israel has changed in the aftermath of October 7. Here’s what he told us from Jerusalem: 

Shalom Lipner, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative

Two years since the initial trauma of the October 7 massacre, Israel is, in many ways, back living on October 6.

After an interim period of peak domestic cohesion—during which Israelis galvanized in response to crisis—ideological divides have reemerged with a vengeance, most prominently in the ferocious debate surrounding the Netanyahu government's prosecution of the Gaza war and efforts to secure a release of the hostages. The new prospect of a lasting settlement, while welcomed by most of the public, is unlikely to bridge those disputes, which will come to a head certainly in elections that will be held within the coming year. 

Meanwhile, the extreme nature of the threat to Israel's security from multiple fronts has intensified other pre-existing tendencies. Public resilience to adversity has hardened in the face of unrelenting missile and drone attacks. The Israel Defense Forces—where hundreds of thousands of Israelis have reported faithfully for consecutive tours of reserve duty since October 7—is revered as singularly hallowed space where unity of purpose among the ranks has transcended politics. A citizenry that already skewed rightward has become even more skeptical of the potential for peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbors.

What has changed fundamentally, however, is Israel's regional and global footing. In the broader Middle East, events—some but not all of them precipitated by Israel—in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran have defanged sworn enemies of Israel and improved its security position. (The Abraham Accords have survived this turbulence largely intact.) Conversely, Israel's international standing has suffered repeated blows, with protests and boycotts targeting its diplomatic, economic, academic, scientific, cultural, and athletic relationships.

But all these realities are tentative. This week's negotiations in Egypt, where parties are engaged in translating US President Donald Trump's plans for peace into concrete facts on the ground, represent a critical inflection point.

Your AC Intel starts there.

Gaza can’t build back up unless Hamas backs down  

Gaza-born Ahmed F. Alkhatib, head of our Realign for Palestine project, joined ABC News to discuss the Egypt talks. He warns that Hamas “may give up governance” but still “insist on reigning over the Gaza Strip,” which would endanger chances of peace or reconstruction. 

Putin is targeting ‘civilians, children, and their toys’

Days after Russia bombed a Ukrainian village near Kyiv, former Ambassador to Ukraine and head of our Eurasia Center John E. Herbst was on the scene, documenting the damage and showing how Russia’s war—in targeting families, their homes, and their livelihoods—is both a moral disaster and a geopolitical challenge. 

Trump is unintentionally lending Africa a hand 

By introducing policies that have weakened the dollar, Trump has helped debt-strapped African countries gain “unexpected breathing room.” But it’s a “temporary” opportunity that these countries must approach carefully, writes former International Monetary Fund adviser Bart Piasecki.

Ukraine’s victory is about more than its sovereignty 

Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk joined us in Atlantic Council headquarters today, laying out the “set of priorities” for what victory looks like for Ukraine, including the preservation of Ukraine’s statehood, “ironclad security guarantees,” and EU and NATO membership in the long run.

FUTURE INTEL

Upcoming event: Keeping the ‘power’ in ‘military power’ 

Military operations these days require more energy—and yet energy is in short supply around the world. US Representative Sarah Elfreth, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe Curtis Michael Scaparrotti, and former US Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth join us to talk about how the United States and its allies can continue to power their defenses. 

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