All eyes were on New York City today, as Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife were arraigned on charges of drug trafficking and narco-terrorism. Nizar El Fakih, a fellow with our Strategic Litigation Project and an attorney who has represented Venezuelan dissidents in the past, was in the courtroom where it happened. Here’s his on-the-ground insight:
“Being in the courtroom today at the US federal courthouse at 500 Pearl Street in Manhattan was a surreal experience. Before me was a man who seemed slow to accept his changed circumstances. In the initial appearance before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, Maduro—disheveled and disoriented—seemed to believe he was still the president of Venezuela. As the judge asked Maduro to confirm his identity before the court, Maduro—speaking in Spanish—said: ‘I am still president of my country.’ He described himself as a ‘prisoner of war’ and invoked the Geneva Conventions. The judge—stone-faced—pushed back and said he wasn’t asking for arguments at this time, he just needed to confirm Maduro’s name and asked again: ‘Are you Nicolás Maduro Moros?’ At that point, reality seemed to sink in for Maduro, as he acknowledged his name. The process then continued with his wife, Cilia Flores, who described herself as first lady of Venezuela.
“The exchange was a powerful sign of how a couple who were seen as invincible symbols of brutality, enacting their whims on the Venezuelan population, have been humbled and now need to answer in a court of law. While Maduro sent thousands of dissidents to jails in his country, he now faces the long arm of the law here in the Southern District of New York.
“Looking ahead, there is so much more that Maduro needs to answer for, including the crimes against humanity he committed against the Venezuelan civilian population during his violent reign. But with no international court issuing an indictment, this is the first time we see Maduro needing to account for his crimes, under the rule of law.”
Your AC Intel starts there.
1.
Multilateralism failed Venezuela long before today
In our expert breakdown of the US actions in Venezuela, Nizar laments the lack of justice for Venezuelans and warns that any sustainable future for the country will require “a democratic transition through a credible and legitimate process.”
Alexander B. Gray, who served as chief of staff of the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, points out that the capture of Maduro “is the embodiment” of the recent National Security Strategy and its focus on defending the Western Hemisphere. Alex’s argument: To send a stronger message to China, Russia, and Iran, Washington should now “reimagine the contours of US hemispheric defense.”
In an authoritative explainer on Russia’s “muted” response to the Venezuela operation, former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst points to Putin’s lack of resources “for further foreign adventures” after years of war in Ukraine—and the Russian president’s desire to not “waste any capital” with Trump for future peace talks.
Jason Marczak, who leads our Latin America work, gives a roadmap for the administration on how to deal with “the remnants of the Maduro regime.” Jason says the administration needs to set “specific benchmarks” for staging free and fair elections, releasing political prisoners, clamping down on armed groups, and more.
Landon Derentz, who served as director for energy at the White House during Trump 1.0, argues that, as oil may help pay the costs of the US intervention, the operation provides “a clear signal that Trump will take decisive action when US interests can be advanced without burdening the American public.”
With the capture of Maduro marking Trump’s “most audacious foreign policy decision yet,” Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe—in his latest Inflection Points column—argues that 2026 will indicate whether Trump “permanently changes the nature of US leadership both domestically and abroad.”
Our experts lay out the scenarios likely to unfold following Maduro’s removal, exploring what’s to come for the government, security landscape, and economy.
