Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Katherine Golden, AC Intel Anchor

Today, Ukraine marked four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, with somber memorials honoring the soldiers who died defending their country.

Among the crowds paying their respects are a group of European leaders expressing support and solidarity for Kyiv as it pushes back against Russia’s onslaught. There is also a delegation of Atlantic Council experts, who are talking to Ukrainians about their hopes for the war’s end and what needs to happen to bring it about. For a read on that, turn to Ukrainian civil society leader and Atlantic Council fellow Ksana Nechyporenko, who is based in Kyiv:

“The air in Kyiv is electrified not only by the changing season, which brings with it promises of warmth and light, but by a growing debate about what comes next. Broadly speaking, two schools of thought have emerged.

“The first camp argues that Ukraine must test every serious diplomatic opening. For the Ukrainians in this camp, negotiations offer a way to consolidate battlefield gains, secure Western commitments, bring home prisoners of war, and potentially freeze the conflict on terms that preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow rebuilding to begin in earnest. They speak of moving forward, even if that forward motion requires painful compromises.

“The second camp is deeply skeptical of negotiations with Moscow, pointing to Russia’s violation of past agreements, from the Minsk agreements to various cease-fires. For the Ukrainians in this camp, talk of compromise risks legitimizing territorial loss and rewarding aggression. Many in this camp believe Ukraine must prepare for a protracted war lasting at least through 2027, if not longer. They are already discussing how to fortify cities, expand domestic weapons production, reform mobilization, and brace for yet another winter under fire. Their message is clear: Only sustained military pressure can produce a just peace.

“Yet, many Ukrainians hold views from both camps at once. That’s the case even among the country’s leadership: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for example, participates in negotiations while also giving regional governors instructions to prepare for the harsh winters ahead.

“To be clear: Ukraine is not debating whether to resist. It is debating how—and how to prevail.”

Our experts are on the ground to remind the international community of what is at stake. Your AC Intel starts there.

Ukraine isn’t giving up

Posted up in central Kyiv, former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst debunks Moscow’s claims that Russia has taken pivotal cities such as Kupyansk and Pokrovsk, pointing out that “the Ukrainians are pushing back” with “ingenuity and courage” that “continues to astound the world.” 

The social fabric is under strain

Documenting how life in Ukraine has been reshaped by war, Odesa-based Atlantic Council fellow Michael Bociurkiw writes in The Globe and Mail that local businesses that withstood initial shocks are now closing, “worn down” by “uncertainty,” power outages, and low foot traffic with “men staying home to avoid military police seeking draft evaders.” 

Applause isn’t enough

Kyiv-based editor Peter Dickinson writes that while the praise for Ukraine’s resilience is welcome, it “can serve as a substitute for action.” His message for leaders in the West: “Marvel at the courage” Ukraine has displayed, but also “act accordingly by increasing international support.” 

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Putin paid a price for underestimating Ukraine. The West could too.

Security researcher Mykola Bielieskov has a reality check for the Western partners that are letting doubt seep in about Ukraine’s potential to win: “Ukraine is no longer a military minnow,” he writes, and it has “multiple trump cards”—prime among them its “skilled, inventive, and highly motivated” army and its sophisticated drone industry. 

Don’t expect to be reimbursed for the extra you paid due to tariffs

Ahead of the State of the Union address tonight, our experts charted what to expect from President Donald Trump after the Supreme Court struck down many of his tariffs. One takeaway, from former White House Director for International Economics Brian Janovitz: Consumers are unlikely to ever “be reimbursed at any real scale,” because for the most part, they “absorbed the tariffs through increased prices, but did not pay the tariffs.” 

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